Europe can’t cover Ukraine’s war needs: Total aid to is falling to record low after US abandons Kyiv, while civilian casualties surge 75%

In 2025, external financial support for Ukraine is expected to decline to its lowest level since the start of the full-scale Russian war, according to researchers from the Ukraine Support Tracker project of the Kiel Institute. Ukrainian civilians are paying the highest price for this decline.

According to the UN Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine, the number of civilian casualties from long-range weapons in Ukraine increased by 26% in 2025, while the number of injured civilians rose by 75%.

For example, in Kyiv, the number of civilian casualties in the first ten months of 2025 was nearly four times higher than for the entire year of 2024. Other major cities, such as Dnipro and Zaporizhzhia, also saw significant increases in civilian casualties.

European military aid declines sharply

Military assistance declined sharply over the summer of 2025, a trend that continued through September and October.

At the current pace, European funds alone are insufficient to fully compensate for the absence of US military aid this year.

Germany, France, and the UK increase spending

Although annual allocations averaged approximately €41.6 billion in 2022–2024 (including Europe, the US, and other donors), in 2025, only €32.5 billion was allocated. To reach previous levels, allies would need to provide an additional €9.1 billion by the end of the year.

By October, internal disparities within Europe also grew. France, Germany, and the UK sharply increased their military allocations compared to 2022–2024: Germany nearly tripled its contributions, while France and the UK more than doubled theirs.

Even so, as a percentage of 2021 GDP, all three countries lag significantly behind leading Scandinavian donors, Denmark, Finland, Norway, and Sweden.

Spain did not send aid, Italy declined PURL

The contrast is even stronger with Italy and Spain, as neither country increased its military allocations in 2025. Italy reduced its already low support by 15% compared to 2022–2024, while Spain provided no new military aid this year.

At the same time, Rome became the first European capital to propose leaving Ukraine without weapons during “peace talks” that have yielded no results after a year of diplomatic efforts by US President Donald Trump. 

Italy said it would not participate in the PURL program, which purchases US-made weapons for Ukraine. The most important of them is Patriot air missile systems.

This program is critically important for Kyiv as it is effectively the only formal mechanism for obtaining weapons to counter Putin’s 600,000-strong army in Ukraine, and air-defense systems ahead of winter terror attacks, as US President Donald Trump's administration abandoned military assistance for Kyiv. 

This limited participation has significantly weakened overall European support for Ukraine.