Poll: Schiff leads, with Porter and Garvey battling for second place in CA Senate race

SACRAMENTO, California — Adam Schiff has a clear advantage in California’s Senate race, with fellow Democratic Rep. Katie Porter and Republican Steve Garvey in a fierce battle to advance to the November runoff, according to a new statewide poll.

The survey from the Public Policy Institute of California shows Porter hanging in there despite being hammered by millions of dollars in TV ads from Schiff and his super PAC trying to prop up Garvey, the former major league player who would assuredly lose to Schiff in the fall.

The race for the No. 2 spot in the March 5 primary will determine whether the runoff is a competitive clash between two nationally known Democrats or a partisan snooze-fest in deep blue California. Garvey has done almost no campaigning and hasn’t raised enough money to run his own TV ads.

Schiff, a 12-term Democrat from Burbank who has made former President Donald Trump his chief foil in the race, leads with 24 percent of likely voters; with Porter and Garvey at 19 percent and 18 percent, respectively.

Democratic Rep. Barbara Lee stands at 10 percent.

“Since Garvey has become a known factor in this race, he has been competitive for being the No. 2,” said Mark Baldassare, the survey director at PPIC. “But we haven’t seen an erosion of support for Porter, and she’s running ads on her own behalf, also.”

Garvey’s support has grown by 8 percent since December, while Schiff and Porter increased their share by 3 percent apiece.

Other public and private polls shared with POLITICO have shown Garvey building a second-place lead over Porter; and a larger lead for Schiff overall.

Schiff and Porter had maintained a consistent edge in PPIC’s prior surveys, but Garvey has been boosted in recent weeks by the TV and digital ads portraying him as a conservative threat to California. The commonly employed, wink-and-nod strategy used by the Schiff campaign is designed to drive up support for Garvey among Republicans — and box out Porter.

Porter also is the target of more than $5 million to date from billionaires in the cryptocurrency industry over concerns that she’d overregulate their business.

PPIC’s latest survey was conducted for one week through Feb. 13, and Garvey-focused ads continue to saturate the airwaves and fill the mailboxes of Republicans. Forty-nine percent of Republicans would vote for Garvey, the poll found, with independents evenly divided at 19 percent for Schiff and Porter, and 15 percent for Garvey.

Schiff has the most support in the San Francisco Bay Area (32 percent) and Los Angeles (26 percent), while Porter’s support is highest in Orange and San Diego counties (29 percent).

Demographically, Porter’s support is highest among people under 45 years old (23 percent to Schiff’s 11 percent), while older voters backed Schiff to the tune of 31 percent, leading Garvey (22 percent) and Porter (18 percent).