Ukrainian bonds hit record high as markets bet on Trump’s peace plan

Feb 7, 2025 - 04:00

Ukrainian dollar bonds have risen for the fifth consecutive day, reaching new highs amid expectations surrounding a forthcoming ceasefire agreement plan, according to Bloomberg.

US President Donald Trump has numerous times expressed his plan to end the war quickly, claiming he could achieve a peace deal even before taking office. However, it did not happened. Recently, he has announced meetings and negotiations with Ukraine, Russia, and “various parties.” It remains uncertain how he plans to convince Moscow to enter peace talks. Reports suggest he may consider an agreement that compromises Ukraine’s territorial integrity and halts US aid to the country.

According to the report, Ukraine’s debt has increased across all maturities, and the value of the 2034 bonds has surpassed 60 cents per dollar—the highest level since their issuance last year.

Bloomberg data shows that Ukrainian dollar bonds have generated a total return of 7.8%, consistently ranking among the most profitable securities in emerging markets.

“I think the market will continue to be positive through to an actual sit-down between Trump and Putin,” said Timothy Ash, senior EM sovereign strategist at RBC BlueBay Asset Management.

Last year, Ukrainian bonds surged approximately 60% as fund managers built their positions in anticipation of measures that would help accelerate the end of the war.

A viable peace would provide a“huge growth bounce,” though there remains a risk of a bad deal, says Ash, adding that if security is not guaranteed, the consequences for Ukraine and Europe will be grim.

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