Trump’s Senate majority nightmare: A Collins-Murkowski tag team

The fight for who will control the House of Representatives after the 2026 election has turned into a national mud war. Perhaps the redrawing of congressional district maps in state after state will result in a draw, and everyone involved will conclude “So, why did we do that?”

The Senate is much neater. State-based elections eliminate the opportunity for state legislators to draw congressional districts they dream of one day representing.

Republicans current 53-47 majority in the Senate may be reduced but probably won't be eliminated. Democrats are defending open seats in New Hampshire, Minnesota, Michigan and Illinois, while Republicans are defending Alabama, Kentucky, North Carolina and Iowa.

In New Hampshire, Rep. Chris Pappas (D.-N.H.) appears to be the early favorite to hold the seat for the Democrats. Republicans hope that former Sen. John Sununu’s (R-N.H.) flirtation with running becomes a reality. 

In Minnesota, Rep. Angie Craig (D- Minn.) is in a similar position to Pappas. Illinois will be the easiest of holds for the Democrats. 

In Michigan, former Rep. Mike Rogers (R-Mich.) is a solid candidate who came very close to winning an open Senate seat in 2024. But it is difficult to see Rogers winning without Trump on the ballot pulling out those working class Trump-only voters, assuming Michigan Democrats do not veer far left in their primary choice.

Republicans should easily hold Alabama and the Kentucky seat of retiring Senator and former Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) — that is, unless Democrats get lucky and entice Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear into the Senate race. But he clearly has presidential ambitions and is unlikely to settle for a risky Senate race.

Of the currently open seats up in 2026, North Carolina is the one most likely to flip. Former Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper is officially in and holds a six-point lead over Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Whatley. Whatley lacks name recognition, which will cost millions to achieve, while Cooper bolted out of the gate setting a fundraising record.

Democrats scored another recruiting coup with the entrance of former Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) into the Senate race but the Buckeye state continues to trend red.

Republicans could offset a loss in North Carolina with a win in Georgia, but incumbent Democrat Sen. John Ossoff (D-Ga.) is a well prepared political animal. The failure to recruit Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp (R) into the Senate race is a major blow to Republican hopes.

The recently announced retirement of Sen. Joni Ernst (R-Iowa) gives Democrats another prime takeover target. Trump’s tariffs and agricultural policies, including immigration restrictions, will be a problem for any Republican nominee. It will cost the Republicans millions to hold the Hawkeye state seat.

At this moment, Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) appears headed for reelection largely because 77 year old Democratic Gov. Janet Mills cannot make a decision either to enter the race or punt.

In Texas, the race for incumbent Sen. John Cornyn’s (R-Texas) seat has turned into a self-created mess for Republicans. Attorney General Ken Paxton has a significant lead in primary polls against Cornyn, but those same polls show him to be a weak Republican nominee.

Democratic candidate recruitment success coupled with Republican failure to match them offers the very real prospect that the GOP’s Senate majority will be decreased by at least one, and perhaps two, seats. 

In that event, the Republicans' 50th vote would be provided by Alaska Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R). 

That is the same Murkowski whom President Trump tried to defeat in 2022, actively supporting her opponent. He failed.

A reelected Collins would then be positioned to provide the 51st vote on President Trump’s legislative wish list. 

That is the same Susan Collins of whom Trump recently said “Republicans, when in doubt, vote the exact opposite of Senator Susan Collins. Generally speaking, you can’t go wrong.”

Murkowski-Collins is tag-team nomenclature that political watchers will get in the habit of using. Murkowski-Collins, working as a team, will have de facto control of the Senate. In the final two years of President Trump’s term, the Senate may operate as 49-to-49 plus 2.

There is an old saying that advice is worth what you pay for it. While this is free I believe it is spot on. Trump should be nicer to the lady senators. He is going to need them.

Kevin Igoe is the former deputy chief of staff of the Republican National Committee and former executive director of Maryland Republican Party. He served as chief of staff of the Maryland Department of Budget and Management and was a Reagan White House appointee.