Tropical Storm Keli Forecast Discussion Number 9
Issued at 500 AM HST Wed Jul 30 2025
000 WTPA42 PHFO 301435 TCDCP2 Tropical Storm Keli Discussion Number 9 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP022025 Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM HST Wed Jul 30 2025 While initially appearing a little more organized on satellite infrared imagery, Keli's convection has become more fragmented during the past few hours. Subjective Dvorak estimates range from T2.0/30 kt to T3.0/45 kt and the initial intensity is still held at 35 kt to represent a blend of these estimates. First-light visible satellite data should hopefully reveal more useful information about the state of the low-level circulation. Keli is moving rapidly westward at about 18 kt. A combination of the ridging to the north and Iona to the southeast continue to the be the major steering features. The track guidance is closely clustered, and the NHC track forecast has been nudged to show a slightly faster forward motion. Strong vertical wind shear, dry mid-level humdities, and marginal sea surface temperatures will all contribute to Keli's weakening and dissipation during the next day or so. While the official intensity forecast still maintains dissipation at 36 h, numerical models suggest this could occur even sooner. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/1500Z 13.8N 155.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 31/0000Z 14.2N 158.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 31/1200Z 14.9N 161.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Bucci
