Tropical Storm Keli Forecast Discussion Number 7
Issued at 500 PM HST Tue Jul 29 2025
767 WTPA42 PHFO 300243 TCDCP2 Tropical Storm Keli Discussion Number 7 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP022025 Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM HST Tue Jul 29 2025 Keli appears to be maintaining its intensity...for now. The system continues to produce rather small areas of convection with limited banding features over the eastern semicircle. Overall, however, the tropical cyclone's cloud pattern is not very well organized. The advisory intensity estimate is held at 35 kt in agreement with subjective Dvorak numbers from SAB and PHFO along with objective estimates from UW-CIMSS. The storm remains quite small with only about a 30 n mi extent of 34-kt winds from the center. The storm continues to gradually accelerate with an initial motion estimate now of about 280/16 kt. Keli is being steered by the flow on the south side of a mid-level ridge and appears to also be starting to get caught up in the northeast quadrant of the outer circulation of larger Hurricane Iona. The track guidance models have generally shifted a little northward with an additional increase in forward speed. The official forecast has again been nudged poleward and faster. Although Keli is hanging on as a tropical storm for the moment, it is not likely to last for more than a couple of days. Westerly vertical shear from the outflow of Iona is likely to cause weakening, and Keli's inflow should be soon disrupted by Iona's low-level circulation. The official forecast continues to call for weakening and dissipation in 48 hours or so. This is also in good agreement with the IVCN intensity model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0300Z 13.1N 151.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 30/1200Z 13.7N 154.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 31/0000Z 14.2N 157.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 31/1200Z 14.6N 161.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
