Tropical Storm Cristina Forecast Discussion Number 9
Issued at 300 AM CST Wed Jun 10 2026
000 WTPZ43 KNHC 100848 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Cristina Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032026 300 AM CST Wed Jun 10 2026 Recent radar images from Nicaragua show a small curved band to the southwest of the center of Cristina, with a larger area of newer convection that extends farther to the west offshore of El Salvador and Guatemala. Earlier passive microwave images were inconclusive in assessing the low-level structure of the storm, but recent OSCAT winds indicate the center is still closed with the strongest winds confined to the southern semicircle of the circulation. Based on a blend of the OSCAT data with the latest UW-CIMSS objective (28-39 kt) and TAFB subjective (35 kt) satellite intensity estimates, the initial intensity is held at 35 kt. Cristina is still moving slowly westward (260/3 kt). Compared to last night, the track models are in much better agreement that the storm will turn west-northwestward and then northwestward during the next day or so while approaching Central America. The updated NHC track forecast follows the HCCA and TVCE consensus aids and shows Cristina reaching the coast of El Salvador by early Thursday. This track prediction is slightly to the left of the previous one. Cristina remains over very warm SSTs, and the deep-layer shear has decreased since yesterday. However, the storm is still fairly close to land, and the dynamical models suggest little change in strength will occur before Cristina reaches the coast. Therefore, the NHC forecast continues to show only modest strengthening before Cristina moves inland on Thursday morning within the warning area. This prediction lies on the higher end of the intensity guidance envelope. Once inland, the mountainous terrain of El Salvador and Guatemala will induce rapid weakening, and Cristina should dissipate by Thursday night. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Cristina will impact coastal portions of Central America through Thursday. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. 2. Tropical storm conditions, especially in gusts, are expected to impact portions of the coasts of El Salvador, Honduras, and Nicaragua today and tonight. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0900Z 12.4N 88.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 10/1800Z 12.7N 88.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 11/0600Z 13.4N 89.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 11/1800Z 14.5N 90.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 48H 12/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart
