Tropical Storm Cristina Forecast Discussion Number 6
Issued at 900 AM CST Tue Jun 09 2026
000 WTPZ43 KNHC 091446 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Cristina Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032026 900 AM CST Tue Jun 09 2026 Cristina continues to be affected by strong north-northeasterly vertical wind shear, and the cloud pattern is disorganized with little or no evidence of convective banding features. The center of the cyclone is estimated to be near the northern edge of the main area of convection. Given the current structure of the system, the current intensity is held at 35 kt for this advisory. This is in general agreement with objective estimates from UW-CIMSS. The center appears to be moving erratically near the northwest coast of Nicaragua, and the initial motion estimate is nearly stationary. The future track is uncertain and depends on whether the circulation remains intact while it meanders near the coast of Central America. If the center remains offshore, a slow west-northwestward motion is likely beginning within the next day or so, to the south of a mid-level ridge. The official track forecast is roughly in the middle of the numerical guidance. There is significant spread in the guidance models, so there is low confidence in this track forecast. Since Cristina is likely to remain near the coast of Central America, and northeasterly shear should continue over the area, a weakening trend is forecast to begin in a day or so. The tropical cyclone is forecast to dissipate over land in a couple of days. However if Cristina were to move inland sooner than expected, it will meet its demise earlier than indicated here. The official intensity forecast is in good agreement with the corrected consensus model guidance. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Cristina will impact coastal portions of Central America through Thursday. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. 2. Tropical storm conditions, especially in gusts, are expected to impact portions of the coast of Nicaragua, El Salvador, and Honduras today. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/1500Z 12.5N 87.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 10/0000Z 12.6N 87.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 10/1200Z 12.9N 88.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 11/0000Z 13.2N 89.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 11/1200Z 13.7N 89.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 60H 12/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
