Tropical Storm Cristina Forecast Discussion Number 5
Issued at 300 AM CST Tue Jun 09 2026
000 WTPZ43 KNHC 090842 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Cristina Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032026 300 AM CST Tue Jun 09 2026 Strong northerly shear has exposed the low-level center of Cristina in overnight shortwave-IR satellite images. The remaining convective activity is confined to the southern portion of the circulation, where scatterometer data from around 0230 UTC indicated that tropical-storm-force winds were still occurring. While there were several 35-kt wind vectors from those ASCAT passes, the satellite presentation of the storm has notably deteriorated since that time. The initial intensity is lowered to 35 kt for this advisory, consistent with the latest UW-CIMSS objective (30-37 kt) and TAFB subjective (35 kt) satellite intensity estimates. The long-term motion of Cristina is north-northeastward (020/3 kt). However, the exposed center has wobbled around overnight and now lies very near the coast of northwestern Nicaragua. There is more spread in the near-term track guidance than usual, with models struggling to initialize the center of Cristina in the proper location. The future track is uncertain and depends on whether the circulation remains intact while it meanders near the coast of northwestern Nicaragua and southern Honduras today. If the center remains offshore, then most models eventually agree on a slow westward to northwestward motion that takes Cristina toward El Salvador on Wednesday. The updated track forecast lies to the right of the previous prediction and the latest model consensus given the storm's current location, but overall confidence is fairly low. Continued northerly vertical wind shear and the storm's proximity to land will likely lead to some weakening during the next day or two, even if the center is able to remain just offshore. The bulk of the intensity guidance favors this scenario, and the updated NHC intensity forecast shows Cristina becoming a tropical depression by early Wednesday and dissipating on Thursday. This is in good agreement with the latest multi-model and simple intensity consensus aids. Alternatively, the circulation of Cristina could open up and dissipate earlier than forecast if it moves inland sooner than expected. The GFS deviates much farther to the south than the rest of the guidance, and the resulting intensification it shows is deemed an unlikely solution at this time. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Cristina will impact coastal portions of Central America through Thursday. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. 2. Tropical storm conditions, especially in gusts, are expected to impact portions of the coast of Nicaragua, El Salvador, and Honduras today. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0900Z 12.7N 87.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 09/1800Z 12.9N 87.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 10/0600Z 13.2N 88.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 10/1800Z 13.5N 88.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 48H 11/0600Z 14.0N 89.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 60H 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart
