Tropical Storm Boris Forecast Discussion Number 5
Issued at 900 AM CST Mon Jun 08 2026
000 WTPZ42 KNHC 081455 TCDEP2 Tropical Storm Boris Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022026 900 AM CST Mon Jun 08 2026 Although the system is producing considerable deep convection with tops colder than -80 deg C, the convection is still not well organized. The cloud pattern is rather linearly oriented from southeast to northwest and curved banding features are limited. The current advisory intensity remains at 35 kt in general agreement with objective SATCON estimates and a blend of other estimates from UW-CIMSS. The center of circulation is difficult to locate. However, it is estimated that Boris has turned northward while continuing to move quite slowly with an initial motion estimate of 360/3 kt. Mid-level ridging is expected to strengthen somewhat over northern Mexico during the next 24 hours, which should cause Boris to turn northwestward tonight. On this track, the center of the storm should reach the coast of Guerrero, Mexico, this evening and then move inland over southern Mexico. Some slight strengthening is possible today, but significant intensification is not likely due to the elongated cloud pattern and strong vertical wind shear. Rapid weakening over the mountainous terrain of Mexico will occur after the center crosses the coast. The threat of very heavy rainfall is the primary hazard of concern, which should result in flash flooding and mudslides in mountainous terrain. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Boris will impact portions of southern Mexico. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach the coast of southern Mexico within the Tropical Storm Warning area later today. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/1500Z 16.0N 99.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 09/0000Z 16.6N 99.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 09/1200Z 17.7N 100.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 36H 10/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
