Tropical Storm Amanda Forecast Discussion Number 5
Issued at 200 PM PDT Wed Jun 03 2026
000 WTPZ41 KNHC 032032 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Amanda Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012026 200 PM PDT Wed Jun 03 2026 Visible and infrared satellite imagery have depicted increasing organization of Amanda today with curved banding noted. A SAR RCM-2 pass from earlier this morning showed a slightly larger and more uniform wind field around the center of Amanda, and the center position was slightly farther south than previously forecast. The initial position of the storm has been adjusted accordingly. Subjective and objective Dvorak analyses range from 30-40 kt, so the initial intensity is maintained at 35 kt. Amanda is moving toward the west-northwest with an initial motion of 300/8 kt. A mid-level ridge to the northeast will support a northwestward to west-northwestward motion over the next couple of days. A turn toward the west then west-southwest with a slower forward speed is expected by this weekend as the ridge strengthens and builds westward. The official forecast has been shifted slightly southward through the forecast period to account for the initial position adjustment and model trends, and is close to the Google DeepMind forecast track. The storm is embedded within a rather humid low- and mid-level air mass, and all model guidance supports steady strengthening within the next 36 h. GFS and EC SHIPS RI probability model guidance has decreased since the previous forecast cycle, showing a 10 to 20 percent chance of rapid intensification over the next 24 to 36 h. The official NHC forecast shows a peak intensity of 50 kt, which lies near the higher end of the model guidance. Amanda will encounter a drier mid-level environment and increasing shear beyond 36 h, and may struggle to produce convection this weekend. Slow to steady weakening is expected as a result, and Amanda is forecast to become a post-tropical remnant low at Day 5, though some models suggest this could occur sooner than forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/2100Z 10.8N 128.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 04/0600Z 11.5N 129.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 04/1800Z 12.4N 131.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 05/0600Z 13.0N 132.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 05/1800Z 13.3N 133.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 06/0600Z 13.0N 134.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 06/1800Z 12.6N 134.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 07/1800Z 12.0N 135.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 08/1800Z 11.4N 136.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Kelly/Adams
