Tropical Storm Amanda Forecast Discussion Number 4
Issued at 800 AM PDT Wed Jun 03 2026
000 WTPZ41 KNHC 031454 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Amanda Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012026 800 AM PDT Wed Jun 03 2026 Deep convection has been increasing near and to the west of the low-level center of the system over the past 6-12 hours. Objective Dvorak satellite intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS are around 35 kt. Using these estimates and the latest satellite trends, the depression has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Amanda with the initial intensity set to 35 kt. Amanda is moving a little faster to the northwest with an initial motion of 305/7 kt. The system is flanked by a mid-level ridge to the northeast and an upper-level low to the northwest, supporting a northwestward to west-northwestward motion through Friday. A turn toward the west then west-southwest with a slower forward motion is expected by this weekend as the ridge strengthens. The official forecast is similar to the previous in the short term, but has been nudged slightly farther south from the previous beyond Day 3, lying between the Google DeepMind and various consensus aids. The storm has shown increasing organized convection this morning, and is embedded within a sufficiently saturated low- and mid-level environment. All model guidance supports steady strengthening over the next 36 h or so. It is noted that GFS and EC SHIPS RI model guidance are showing a 20 to 30 percent chance of rapid intensification during the next 24 to 36 h. The official NHC forecast maintains a peak intensity of 55 kt, which lies near the higher end of the model guidance. After 36-48 h, Amanda will move into a less-favorable environment with increasing shear and a drier mid-level airmass, supporting steady weakening through this weekend. Towards the end of the forecast period, the system will begin to struggle to produce convection. The official forecast now has the system becoming a post-tropical remnant low at Day 5, although some models suggest this could occur sooner than forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/1500Z 10.6N 128.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 04/0000Z 11.2N 129.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 04/1200Z 12.1N 130.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 05/0000Z 12.9N 131.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 05/1200Z 13.5N 132.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 06/0000Z 13.6N 133.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 06/1200Z 13.4N 134.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 07/1200Z 12.9N 134.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 08/1200Z 12.2N 135.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Kelly/Adams
