Tropical Storm Amanda Forecast Discussion Number 15
Issued at 1100 PM HST Fri Jun 05 2026
000 WTPZ41 KNHC 060836 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Amanda Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012026 1100 PM HST Fri Jun 05 2026 Amanda's overall structure has changed little since the previous advisory. Deep convection continues over and west of the low-level circulation center due to the persistent moderate southeasterly shear. Subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB and objective intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS range from 35 to 40 kt. Given the current satellite presentation and continuity from the previous forecast, the initial intensity is held at 35 kt. Amanda is moving toward the southwest, or 230/4 kt. A low- to mid-level ridge building north of the system is expected to remain the primary steering mechanism, resulting in continued southwestward motion through the weekend. As Amanda gradually weakens and becomes increasingly shallow, it should become embedded within the low-level trade wind flow. The latest track guidance remains tightly clustered, and the NHC forecast track is essentially unchanged from the previous advisory. Persistent southeasterly shear, dry-air entrainment, and increasing upper-level convergence are expected to continue limiting convective organization. Simulated satellite imagery from the dynamical models generally agrees, showing only occasional bursts of convection with no significant organization. The NHC intensity forecast remains near the consensus guidance and continues to show Amanda steadily weakening over the weekend, then degenerating into a post-tropical remnant low late Sunday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0900Z 12.7N 134.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 06/1800Z 12.4N 135.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 07/0600Z 12.0N 135.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 07/1800Z 11.4N 136.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 08/0600Z 11.0N 136.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 08/1800Z 10.8N 137.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 09/0600Z 10.5N 138.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 10/0600Z 10.0N 140.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 11/0600Z 9.3N 143.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Gibbs
