Tropical Depression One-E Forecast Discussion Number 2
Issued at 800 PM PDT Tue Jun 02 2026
273 WTPZ41 KNHC 030231 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression One-E Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012026 800 PM PDT Tue Jun 02 2026 The system has not become significantly better organized since becoming a tropical cyclone earlier today. A small area of deep convection has been persisting near and just west of the center of circulation, but convective banding features are limited at this time. Cirrus cloud motions show fairly well-defined upper-level anticyclonic flow over the area. The current intensity estimate is held at 25 kt based on a Dvorak classification of T1.5 from TAFB, an ADT estimate from CIMSS, and OSCAT data. Center fixes indicate a slow, but generally northwestward, motion at around 310/3 kt. A mid-level ridge to the northeast of the system should cause a northwestward to west-northwestward movement at a slightly faster forward speed during the next few days. A westward to southwestward turn is forecast in 3-5 days in response to a slight building of the ridge to the northwest. The official track forecast is quite similar to that from the previous advisory, and in good agreement with the corrected consensus model guidance, HCCA. Given the seemingly favorable upper-level winds and warm SSTs, some strengthening is predicted. However, since the cyclone is embedded in an elongated convergence zone, this could impede significant intensification. The official forecast shows modest strengthening over the next couple of days which is in general agreement with HCCA and the HAFS regional hurricane models. Later in the forecast period, increasing vertical wind shear associated with south-southwesterly flow ahead of a large upper-level trough should lead to weakening. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0300Z 9.7N 126.8W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 03/1200Z 10.2N 127.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 04/0000Z 11.1N 128.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 04/1200Z 12.0N 129.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 05/0000Z 12.9N 131.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 05/1200Z 13.6N 132.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 06/0000Z 13.9N 133.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 07/0000Z 13.8N 134.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 08/0000Z 13.3N 135.0W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch
