Tropical Depression One-C Forecast Discussion Number 3
Issued at 1100 AM HST Sun Jul 27 2025
000 WTPA41 PHFO 272035 TCDCP1 Tropical Depression One-C Discussion Number 3 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012025 Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM HST Sun Jul 27 2025 The system continues to become better organized this morning, with deep convection in curved banding generally to the west of the center. Recent imagery shows that convection has been developing the last few hours near the low-level center, with some increased curvature. Subjective Dvorak satellite intensity estimates from HFO and SAB were T/2.0 this cycle. A scatterometer pass is expected shortly which should give a better idea of the surface winds. Using the Dvorak estimates, the intensity is held at 30 kt. The system is moving westward at about 270/10 kt. A westward motion is expected the next several days as the cyclone moves on the south side of a mid-level ridge. There continues to be some spread in the along track guidance, although there is high confidence on the system remaining well south of the Hawaiian islands. The NHC track forecast is similar to the previous, and lies closest to the HCCA corrected consensus aids. Environmental conditions appear favorable for some gradual strengthening the next couple of days. The hurricane regional models remain at the higher end of the guidance envelope, and the latest NHC forecast is near the previous. Beyond 48 h, a gradual weakening trend should begin as the system moves over slightly cooler sea surface temperatures, a drier airmass, and vertical wind shear is expected to increase. The gradual weakening trend will cause the system to become a remnant low by day 5, potentially even opening into a trough. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/2100Z 11.0N 147.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 28/0600Z 11.1N 148.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 28/1800Z 11.2N 150.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 29/0600Z 11.2N 152.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 29/1800Z 11.2N 155.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 30/0600Z 11.5N 158.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 30/1800Z 11.8N 161.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 31/1800Z 12.5N 168.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 01/1800Z 13.9N 176.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Kelly
