Tropical Depression Ivo Forecast Discussion Number 19
Issued at 200 AM PDT Mon Aug 11 2025
000 WTPZ44 KNHC 110847 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Ivo Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092025 200 AM PDT Mon Aug 11 2025 Ivo has become devoid of deep convection as it moves over increasingly cooler waters and into a drier air mass. The current intensity estimate is 30 kt which could be a bit generous based on partial scatterometer overpasses. The motion continues west-northwestward, or around 295/9 kt. Ivo should remain embedded in low-level easterly flow for the next day or two. The track forecast is similar to that from the previous advisory and very close to the latest corrected consensus, HCCA, solution. Since the system is expected to traverse even cooler waters during the next 36 hours or so, it is unlikely to regenerate significant deep convection. Thus the cyclone will likely become a post-tropical remnant low very soon. The global models depict the system opening up into a trough within 48 hours and this is reflected in the official forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/0900Z 22.7N 118.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 11/1800Z 23.0N 120.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 12/0600Z 23.0N 122.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 12/1800Z 23.0N 125.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
