Russia’s oil revenues hit four-year high amid Iran’s war. And Ukraine is paying price

Mar 25, 2026 - 14:09
Russia’s oil revenues hit four-year high amid Iran’s war. And Ukraine is paying price

strait of hormuz between iran and oman carries one quarter of the seaborne oil trade in the world

Russian oil export revenues hit a four-year high in March. This was driven by rising oil prices amid the Middle East war and a temporary US allowance for the sale of sanctioned Russian crude, according to Bloomberg.

Over the past three weeks, average daily Kremlin revenues from oil exports reached $270 million, twice as much as in January 2026.

This unexpected windfall will be temporary, announced earlier by Russian leader Vladimir Putin, but Moscow’s military budget will receive a significant boost. 

Record export volumes: tankers at full capacity

From 22 February to 22 March, Russian oil exports by sea averaged 3.6 million barrels per day, 160,000 barrels per day more than the previous month.

  • India received 1.14 million barrels/day, up from 1.09 million in February.
  • China received 970,000 barrels/day, down from 1.18 million previously.

The total oil volume in tankers at sea remains around 135 million barrels, just slightly below its peak.

Oil prices surge: Kremlin profits at a peak

  • Urals crude from Baltic ports rose $10 to $61.93/barrel, and from Black Sea ports to $60.22/barrel.
  • ESPO crude for China increased $10.50 to $74.88/barrel.
  • For India, Russian oil prices jumped $12.70 to $82.91/barrel.

These market shifts create a temporary economic “gift” for Moscow while fueling its military budgets.

At present, the war in Iran has reached a stalemate. The US and Israel have eliminated much of the leadership of Iran’s regime, but attacks continue. A ground operation could potentially change the situation, but it would likely result in casualties among American troops. Such a decision could negatively affect President Donald Trump's electoral prospects in the upcoming elections. 

In a few weeks, European countries may face a difficult decision: whether to direct future air defense system deliveries to their allies in the Persian Gulf or to Ukraine. 

The longer the war in the Middle East continues, the more it drains resources allocated to NATO’s core missions, supporting Ukraine and preparing for a potential conflict with Russia.