Russian forces may launch its offensive on unexpected region bordering Ukraine’s Kyiv Oblast

May 29, 2025 - 15:01

The situation on the border of Sumy and Kharkiv oblasts with Russia must be treated with the utmost seriousness, warns Lieutenant Colonel Maksym Zhorin, deputy commander of Ukraine’s 3rd Separate Assault Brigade.

Russia’s 2025 summer offensive focuses on capturing the entirety of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts and establishing a buffer zone in the border areas of Sumy and Kharkiv. Rather than rapid armored breakthroughs, Moscow is relying on high-intensity assaults across multiple fronts, leveraging adapted tactics such as the use of fast motorcycles and buggies to offset equipment losses.

Zhorin stresses the urgent need to prepare logistics, cover roads with anti-drone nets, and build fortifications. He notes that Russia lacks sufficient forces to capture regional centers but may attempt to push deeper into Ukrainian territory to use this as leverage in negotiations.

“Their goal isn’t to seize entire regions, but to add two more to their propaganda narrative — and claim they could have taken them, but chose not to,” Zhorin says.

Even without a critical mass of troops, the threat remains — and not just in Sumy and Kharkiv oblasts.

Andriy Kovalenko, head of the Center for Countering Disinformation at Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council, warns that Russia may also launch an offensive in the Chernihiv direction, 24 Channel reports.

This is a critical threat, as Chernihiv borders Kyiv Oblast and was a key invasion route in 2022, when Russian forces advanced through Hlukhiv, Bakhmach, and Chernihiv in an attempt to encircle Kyiv from the northeast.

“We must disrupt Russia’s plans to create a buffer zone. That zone must be on Russian territory, not in Ukraine,” Kovalenko emphasizes.

He adds that Russia has long ceased to hide its strategic goal — the occupation of all of Ukraine. However, having a plan does not mean the enemy is capable of executing it.

Ukraine’s military leadership urges not to delay in strengthening the border and preparing for a multi-directional defense.

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