Reuters: Kremlin planning to send 100,000 Russia-based Armenians to Armenia to sway elections

Russian officials have been discussing the possibility of sending up to 100,000 Armenians living in Russia to Armenia to vote in upcoming parliamentary elections against incumbent Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, who has moved closer to Europe and NATO.

Source: European Pravda, citing a Reuters report based on interviews with five Western intelligence officials and documents seen by the agency

Details: Russia's efforts ahead of the elections have included disinformation campaigns in support of pro-Russian candidates and a scheme to transport tens of thousands of Armenians from Russia to influence the vote.

Three Western officials said Moscow's favoured candidate is billionaire Samvel Karapetyan, who is on trial on charges of allegedly calling for the overthrow of the government.

In October, the Kremlin established a unit known as the Directorate for Strategic Cooperation and Partnership, which, according to four sources, oversees influence operations in Armenia.

Five sources said that in recent months, Russian officials have been discussing the possibility of sending Armenians who are based in Russia to vote against Pashinyan.

One source, a senior US official, said the number of people Moscow could realistically transport is a matter of debate within the intelligence community. However, the source said intelligence officials are taking the idea seriously. Armenians travel regularly between the two countries, and there are dozens of flights every day.

Three sources said the Russian authorities have calculated that it would cost approximately US$50 million to move 100,000 voters. They added that by mid-May, the Kremlin had assigned quotas to each region for the number of Armenians to be sent and requested updates on preparations from local administrators.

Reuters was unable to determine whether the plan is being implemented or whether it would be enough to close the significant gap between the election frontrunners.

A poll conducted earlier this month showed that Pashinyan's Civil Contract party is projected to lead with around 30% of the vote. Karapetyan's Strong Armenia party, with about 6%, is in second place among a crowded field.

Russian officials have also stepped up disinformation campaigns targeting Pashinyan's government. Russia is backing an online campaign that spreads false claims about a corrupt land deal involving Pashinyan and US senators.

One European official noted that the campaigns used a Kremlin-linked botnet known as Storm-1516, which also attempted to interfere in recent US elections.

According to three sources, the Kremlin has enlisted Russian political consultancies and think tanks, including the Social Design Agency (SDA), which has been sanctioned by the European Union and the UK for spreading disinformation aimed at undermining support for Ukraine.

Reuters has reviewed five Russian-language documents which the sources said were drafted by the SDA. One of the documents proposed establishing a media outlet called Yerevan1 for the Russian diaspora in Armenia to foster a "negative attitude" towards Pashinyan. The plan promoted the "core narrative" that "Armenia can only prosper in a close alliance with Russia and under its protection".

The document contained an assessment that Russian Armenians could play a decisive role in the elections if "high turnout among them can be ensured".

Russian leader Vladimir Putin has made no secret of his dissatisfaction with Pashinyan's shift in policy as Armenia has moved towards closer cooperation with Western countries.

Background:

• In recent days, Moscow has warned that Armenia risks losing access to cheap gas supplies and has restricted imports of Armenian goods, including fruit, vegetables, flowers and brandy.
• US President Donald Trump has publicly backed Pashinyan ahead of Armenia's elections.

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