Putin boasts of economic strength. ISW says he’s bluffing to pressure the West
Russia is presenting its economy as ready for a long war in Ukraine, a message that analysts say is part of a broader effort to claim that Moscow’s victory is unavoidable.
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said President Vladimir Putin’s latest economic remarks aim to shape perceptions in the West during ongoing peace talks.
Kremlin frames occupied Ukraine as demographic resource
Putin told a Kremlin policy forum on 8 December that Russia is addressing demographic decline and boosting support for families. He said regional governors will be judged partly on birth rate indicators and claimed that survey data on willingness to have children has improved the most in occupied parts of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia oblasts.
ISW notes that Russian occupation authorities have been pushing pro-natalist measures as part of a wider strategy to use occupied Ukrainian regions as economic and demographic resources.
Kremlin claims GDP growth, dismisses sanctions impact
Putin also said Russia’s GDP will grow by about one percent by the end of 2025 and that inflation could stay near six percent. Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin claimed the economy has grown roughly 10 percent over the past three years despite sanctions.
ISW argues that these public statements mask deeper problems. The institute says Kremlin policies show the economy is under strain and that Putin intensified his messaging ahead of the 2 December US-Russia meeting in Moscow.
According to ISW, the goal is to convince Washington that more sanctions will not work and that Russia will not make concessions in negotiations.
ISW: Russia has clear weaknesses the West can exploit
Putin has avoided discussing the war when speaking about the economy, a move ISW sees as an attempt to hide the link between battlefield losses and economic pressure.
Analysts say the Kremlin is pairing claims of economic strength with the narrative that Russia will eventually prevail militarily, hoping to push Ukraine and its partners toward a compromise out of fear of a long conflict.
ISW said Russia has clear military and economic weaknesses that the West and Ukraine can use to press for genuine concessions, and that a Russian victory is far from guaranteed.
