Potential Tropical Cyclone Five-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1

Jun 16, 2025 - 18:00
Potential Tropical Cyclone Five-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
Issued at 2100 UTC MON JUN 16 2025
000
FOPZ15 KNHC 162052
PWSEP5
                                                                    
POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FIVE-E                                   
WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   1                                 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052025               
2100 UTC MON JUN 16 2025                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FIVE-E WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 10.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM         
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.                     
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
L CARDENAS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)
 
ZIHUATANEJO    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)
 
15N 100W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  11(12)   6(18)   X(18)
 
ACAPULCO       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  11(11)  11(22)   X(22)
ACAPULCO       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)
ACAPULCO       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)
 
P MALDONADO    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  32(34)  10(44)   X(44)
P MALDONADO    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   8(16)   X(16)
P MALDONADO    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)
 
P ANGEL        34  X   X( X)   2( 2)  12(14)  63(77)   2(79)   X(79)
P ANGEL        50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  37(38)   2(40)   X(40)
P ANGEL        64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  13(13)   1(14)   X(14)
 
HUATULCO       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  45(48)   3(51)   X(51)
HUATULCO       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  10(11)   1(12)   X(12)
HUATULCO       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
10N 95W        34  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   2( 6)   3( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
15N 95W        34  X   1( 1)   5( 6)  35(41)  32(73)   X(73)   X(73)
15N 95W        50  X   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)  21(28)   1(29)   X(29)
15N 95W        64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
SALINA CRUZ    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)
 
TAPACHULA      34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
P SAN JOSE     34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)   2( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BUCCI