Numbers Russia doesn’t publish: $216 billion in energy losses, 50% drop in timber exports, and no way back

Sanctions have already caused significant losses to the Russian economy, according to Ukraine's Foreign Intelligence Service. Between 2022 and 2025, Russia incurred about $130 billion in additional costs to circumvent sanctions and purchase prohibited Western goods.

The intelligence citing data from the State Security Service of Latvia notes that these estimates are based on internal assessments of Russian government structures and reflect the systemic impact of sanctions pressure.

Billions spent on bypassing isolation

According to the agency, a particularly painful blow for Russia was the full breakdown of a significant part of trade with the European Union, which cost about $70 billion.

Despite Moscow’s public claims of “economic adaptation,” internal assessments acknowledge substantial losses and rising costs of foreign trade operations.

Sanction economy more expensive than sanctions pressure itself

Between 2022 and 2025 alone, Russia spent approximately $32.5 billion annually to circumvent restrictions and purchase goods it previously imported directly from the West.

Russian institutions project that by 2030, total losses from sanctions could increase by another $136 billion, while the overall contraction of foreign trade could reach $175.5 billion.

Despite loud public statements from Moscow about “successful adaptation,” internal assessments acknowledge that sanctions have already caused and continue to cause massive economic losses.

Economic erosion instead of rapid adaptation

Latvian intelligence notes that these estimates are likely optimistic, and the real impact of sanctions may be much deeper due to indirect effects.

These include rising logistics costs, declining corporate profitability, reduced budget revenues, and structural economic distortions.

It is also noted that in the energy sector alone, potential losses for Russia over five years could reach $216.5 billion if embargoes tighten and purchases from key partners decline.

Decline in key export sectors

Exports of several goods have already shown significant declines: iron ore minus 40%, ferrous metals minus 20%, chemical products minus 35%, wood and cellulose minus 50%.

Long-term depletion factor

The Intelligence has emphasized that restoring these markets in the medium term appears unlikely, despite Russian propaganda claims.

It is stated that Russian analysts themselves acknowledge that restoring these markets within the next five years will not be possible.

Any easing of sanctions would only accelerate Russia’s remilitarization and strengthen support for anti-Western regimes, the report concludes.