ISW: Ukrainian military backed by security guarantees key to sustainable peace

Mar 18, 2025 - 19:00

Putin gives Trump a soccer ball at press conference following their one-on-one (with translators only) meeting in Helsinki, Finland on July 16, 2018 (Image: kremlin.ru)

Russian President Vladimir Putin appears to be successfully holding the ceasefire proposal hostage to extract concessions from US President Donald Trump, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reports.

This comes amid the ongoing Russo-Ukrainian war, as Trump has raised concerns among European allies with his apparent shift toward Moscow after taking office in January, while pushing for Moscow-Kyiv negotiations, allegedly to end the war.

Trump stated on 17 March he plans to speak with Putin about “land,” “power plants,” and “dividing up certain assets,” despite these topics not being part of the US-Ukrainian 30-day ceasefire proposal agreed on 11 March.

Putin rejected this temporary ceasefire on 13 March, insisting that any cessation should address the “initial causes” of the war. ISW notes Putin is attempting to change the negotiation sequence to secure concessions on issues that are Russia’s war aims rather than part of the ceasefire proposal.

Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Grushko confirmed on 17 March that Russia still demands Ukrainian neutrality and NATO’s refusal to accept Ukraine as a member – the same demands made before Russia’s 2022 invasion. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha countered that no country should have a “veto” over Ukraine joining alliances.

The Kremlin also rejects European peacekeepers in Ukraine, with Grushko insisting on 17 March that Russia will not accept peacekeepers from the EU, NATO, or Western states. This contradicts both US and Ukrainian positions, as Trump previously stated Europe should be responsible for Ukraine’s security guarantees.

Sybiha emphasized that Ukraine requires a strong military with unrestricted defensive capabilities in any peace agreement and will never compromise on territorial integrity.

“Significant European involvement in post-war Ukraine is critical for any peace settlement that aims to establish an enduring peace in Ukraine,” ISW concludes.

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