ISW: The Kremlin continues its nuclear threats while dangling economic carrots to sway Washington

Oct 2, 2025 - 13:03

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The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reports that Russia is using nuclear threats alongside economic incentives in an effort to pressure the United States into restoring ties, while deliberately rejecting peace talks with Ukraine.

This comes amid the ongoing Russo-Ukrainian war, as Moscow claims it is prevailing despite only incremental gains achieved at the cost of extremely high casualties. Recently, Russia also targeted infrastructure, powering the decommissioned Chornobyl Nuclear Power Plant and the Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia NPP, risking major nuclear incidents.

Kremlin offers nuclear deal, but no peace for Ukraine

ISW noted that Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov stated on 1 October that Moscow expects a third round of discussions with the US “to address irritants” to happen “definitely before the end of autumn 2025.”

He claimed that the Kremlin is still waiting for US President Donald Trump’s response to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s proposal to extend Russia’s commitment to the New START Treaty by one year beyond its 5 February 2026 expiration.

The New START Treaty, a bilateral agreement limiting nuclear arms, originally entered into force in 2011. Ryabkov tied Russia’s offer to a stark warning, saying the US must choose to either “pursue stabilization” with Russia or enter “a new arms race.” He claimed that Moscow opposes such a race but said Russia would still guarantee its own security.

Russia blames Kyiv, but keeps pushing war

Also on 1 October, Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov claimed that Russia could not plan high-level meetings with Ukraine because Kyiv had stopped the negotiation process. ISW dismisses this claim, saying the Kremlin is trying to discredit Ukraine by accusing it of halting talks, while continuing to make demands that amount to full capitulation.

According to ISW, Moscow aims to normalize relations with the US to gain political and economic advantages. At the same time, it drags out its war against Ukraine and actively obstructs any efforts to reach peace.