ISW: Russian rhetoric toward Lithuania could set stage for military action

May 4, 2025 - 13:02

lithuanian flag foreground gediminas castle tower vilnius unn

Senior Russian officials are setting informational conditions that could “support future military operations against Lithuania” or other NATO countries, according to a 3 May assessment by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). The US-based think tank cited recent propaganda efforts denying the sovereignty of Baltic and other former Soviet states.

Russia systematically employs disinformation narratives—such as alleged “Russophobia” and historical revisionism—to delegitimize the sovereignty of neighboring nations and justify its imperial ambitions. These tactics have been instrumental in setting the stage for illegal military aggression, as evidenced by the 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine, preceded and accompanied by a large-scale disinformation campaign. By portraying Ukraine and other countries previously occupied by the Russian Empire and the USSR as artificial constructs lacking legitimate statehood, and by accusing them of fostering anti-Russian sentiment, the Kremlin crafts a narrative that positions Russia as a protector of its people and history.

Independent Russian outlets Meduza and Agentstvo reported on 2 May that Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov wrote the foreword to a book titled History of Lithuania, published in March 2025 by the Foreign Relations division of the Moscow State Institute of International Relations (MGIMO).

Lavrov’s foreword claims Baltic nations use “falsified” history to stoke anti-Russian and “Russophobic” sentiment among their populations. The Russian top diplomat stated that the book analyzes “the development of the lands that were associated with Lithuania at different times.”

Lithuanian Foreign Minister Kęstutis Budrys said the publication is a Russian propaganda tool intended to provide the Kremlin with scholarly-looking justification for denying the statehood and distinct histories of neighboring countries.

ISW noted that Kremlin messaging has increasingly portrayed states formerly part of the Russian Empire or Soviet Union—such as Lithuania—as belonging to modern-day Russia.

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