ISW: Kremlin demands Ukraine give up territory Russia doesn’t control

Mar 20, 2025 - 23:00

The Kremlin in Moscow. Photo: Depositphotos

The Kremlin continues to demand that Ukraine cede Ukrainian territory that Russia does not currently occupy while creating conditions for additional territorial demands, according to a report by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) on 19 March.

Since the start of its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Russia’s demands for Kyiv have remained unchanged, effectively calling for Ukraine’s full capitulation and submission as a vassal state. Amid his shift toward Russia, US President Donald Trump has been pushing for direct Kyiv-Moscow talks, allegedly to end the war.

Russian business outlet Kommersant reported on 18 March that its sources revealed Russian President Vladimir Putin stated at a private meeting with the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs Congress that Russia would not claim “Odesa and other territories” if unspecified countries recognize Ukraine’s Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson oblasts, and Crimea as part of Russia.

Putin and other Russian officials have recently reiterated their demand that Ukraine surrender the entirety of these four oblasts, including areas that Russian forces do not currently control, ISW notes.

The think tank assesses that the Kremlin may have intentionally leaked Putin’s statement to Kommersant to portray Russia’s demands to seize the entirety of the four oblasts as reasonable compared to alternatives.

Putin recently stated that the so-called “Novorossiya” is a vital part of Russia, with Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov defining it as all of eastern and southern Ukraine, including Odesa Oblast. Putin has often used this term for occupied Ukrainian regions, most recently thanking Russian Prosecutor General’s Office employees in “Donbas and Novorossiya” during a 19 March address. He has also called Odesa City a “Russian city.”

West Maintains Unity on Ukraine’s Participation in Peace Negotiations

The US, Ukraine, and Europe continue to agree that Ukraine and Europe must be involved in peace negotiations to end the war, despite Russian President Vladimir Putin’s efforts to exclude them from such talks, ISW noted.

On 18 March, Bloomberg reported, citing people familiar with the matter, that US officials told European counterparts that the EU must be part of any peace agreement, as Russia seeks sanctions relief. The US emphasized stopping the fighting first, then discussing Ukraine’s security arrangements.

Also on 18 March, US President Donald Trump told the Washington Examiner that both Russia and Ukraine must agree to a “full ceasefire and peace deal,” rejecting Putin’s call for bilateral ceasefire talks with the US.

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