Hurricane Kiko Forecast Discussion Number 16
Issued at 500 PM HST Wed Sep 03 2025
022 WTPZ41 KNHC 040253 TCDEP1 Hurricane Kiko Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112025 500 PM HST Wed Sep 03 2025 Kiko remains a powerful category 4 hurricane, with satellite images showing a well-defined eye surrounded by a very cold ring of deep convection with cloud top temperatures of -70 to -85C. The most recent subjective Dvorak current intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB were 6.0/115 kt and 6.5/127 kt respectively, while the objective estimates from UW-CIMSS have ranged between 119 and 132 kt during the past several hours. Based on a blend of these data, the initial intensity has been raised to 125 kt for this advisory. Kiko is moving just south of due west, or 265 degrees, at 8 kt. This general westward motion is expected to continue through Thursday night, as the cyclone is steered by a building subtropical ridge to its north and northwest. A turn toward the west-northwest is forecast on Friday as an upper-level trough north of Hawaii begins to erode the western portion of the subtropical ridge, with this general motion then continuing through the weekend with a gradual increase in forward speed. There remains some along-track and cross track spread among the global models, although the spread has decreased considerably during the past 24 hours. The official track forecast remains in good agreement with a blend of the latest multi-model consensus aids and is nearly on top of, but slightly slower than, the previous forecast track. Kiko will remain over warm waters of 27–28C and influenced by mostly light vertical wind shear through around 60 to 72 hours. The surrounding environmental mid-level moisture will remain drier than optimal, hovering between 50 and 60 percent during the next couple of days, before dropping below 50 percent by day 3. Despite the somewhat dry mid-level airmass, the light vertical wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures should maintain Kiko as a major hurricane through day 3. There will likely be some fluctuations in strength during the next several days with the potential for eyewall replacement cycles during this time. By days 4 and 5, the cyclone will begin moving over cooler water with gradually increasing westerly vertical wind shear, and mid-level moisture plummeting below 40 percent. These factors should lead to steady and eventually rapid weakening of Kiko as the cyclone approaches the Hawaiian Islands from the east. Kiko will be influenced by environmental factors that can lead to the development of annular characteristics along its approach, which can slow the rate of weakening. As a result, the official intensity forecast remains on the higher end or slightly above the intensity aids through day 5, and is very close to the previous advisory. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0300Z 13.8N 132.3W 125 KT 145 MPH 12H 04/1200Z 13.8N 133.4W 125 KT 145 MPH 24H 05/0000Z 13.9N 135.0W 125 KT 145 MPH 36H 05/1200Z 14.1N 136.6W 125 KT 145 MPH 48H 06/0000Z 14.6N 138.1W 120 KT 140 MPH 60H 06/1200Z 15.1N 139.7W 110 KT 125 MPH 72H 07/0000Z 15.7N 141.3W 105 KT 120 MPH 96H 08/0000Z 17.1N 145.1W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 09/0000Z 18.5N 149.8W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Jelsema (CPHC)
