Hurricane Henriette Forecast Discussion Number 31
Issued at 1100 AM HST Mon Aug 11 2025
000 WTPA43 PHFO 112043 TCDCP3 Hurricane Henriette Discussion Number 31 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP082025 Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM HST Mon Aug 11 2025 Henriette now has a compact Central Dense Overcast, with a dimple noted in visible satellite imagery where a small eye could be attempting to form, surrounded by a long spiral band. Subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates are relatively unchanged from 6 hours ago, so the initial intensity is still assumed to be around 75 kt. The initial motion is also unchanged--northwestward, or 310/16 kt. The track guidance is tightly packed for the next 48-60 hours, with Henriette expected to continue moving northwestward between a mid-level low northwest of the Hawaiian Islands and a large ridge centered off the coast of the Pacific Northwest United States. There is more significant spread after 60 hours, related to whether or not Henriette gets picked up by a shortwave trough near the Aleutian Islands (and turns eastward, as in the GFS) or gets left behind and continues northward (as in the ECWMF). The new NHC track forecast is a little east of the previous prediction at the end of the forecast, leaning toward the new consensus aids. Some intensification is still possible during the next 12 hours or so while there remains some favorable divergence aloft, and the NHC intensity forecast reflects that potential. By 24 hours, upper-level convergence, increasing northerly to northwesterly shear, and cooling sea surface temperatures are expected to induce weakening. Henriette could lose its organized deep convection, and thus become post-tropical, in about 60 hours, with the remnant low likely dissipating by day 5 over the far northern Pacific. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/2100Z 29.8N 157.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 12/0600Z 31.4N 159.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 12/1800Z 33.3N 162.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 13/0600Z 35.2N 164.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 13/1800Z 37.3N 167.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 14/0600Z 39.4N 169.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 14/1800Z 41.4N 170.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 15/1800Z 43.8N 169.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 16/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
