Hurricane Henriette Forecast Discussion Number 28
Issued at 500 PM HST Sun Aug 10 2025
818 WTPA43 PHFO 110233 TCDCP3 Hurricane Henriette Discussion Number 28 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP082025 Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM HST Sun Aug 10 2025 Henriette's appearance on satellite imagery is similar to 6 hours ago. The hurricane has maintained a visible eye on geostationary imagery since about 1800 UTC (9 hours ago). The east eyewall is a bit thin, and some dry air may be attempting to entrain into the circulation east of the center. The latest subjective Dvorak estimates are a consensus 4.0/65 kt from JTWC, PHFO and SAB. Objective DPRINT and SATCON values from UW-CIMSS have been running in the 65-70 kt range for the past several hours. The initial intensity is held at 70 kt for this advisory. Henriette is currently over sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) of about 26C, and the SSTs along the cyclone's path should peak close to 27C in 24-36 h. The hurricane will encounter its coldest upper-level temperatures in about 18-24 h as it passes east of a large mid- to upper-level trough. This means that despite environmental dry air, Henriette will still have access to plenty of instability for another day or so. The NHC forecast continues to call for additional strengthening, and is at the high end of the guidance for the first 36 h. After that time, vertical wind shear is expected to increase and SSTs will decrease along Henriette's path as it gains latitude, and the NHC forecast lies near the middle of the guidance envelope from day 2 onward. The shear and colder water should cause the cyclone to lose its convection and become post-tropical in 60 to 72 h, with the low dissipating in about 4 days. The hurricane is moving northwestward at 14 kt in between a large ridge to its northeast and the aforementioned trough to its northwest. These features will continue steering Henriette rather quickly toward the northwest for several days until dissipation. Only very minor changes were made to the previous official forecast, which lies near the various consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/0300Z 26.8N 153.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 11/1200Z 28.4N 155.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 12/0000Z 30.5N 158.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 12/1200Z 32.6N 161.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 13/0000Z 34.7N 163.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 13/1200Z 36.6N 166.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 14/0000Z 38.5N 168.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 15/0000Z 42.1N 169.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 16/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Hagen
