FTSE 100 Live: Stocks to dip as inflation undershoots forecast despite oil surge

Good morning and welcome back to the City AM liveblog.

Fresh inflation data this morning showed a reading of 2.8 per cent leading the consumer price index unchanged from May.

This came under the expectations of a poll of City analysts by Bloomberg that forecast inflation would come in at three per cent for May.

Core inflation, which strips volatile energy and food prices, was 2.6 per cent while services inflation, closely monitored by Bank of England rate-setters for evidence of wage pressures, jumped from 3.2 per cent to 3.7 per cent. 

Future data is expected to show the trickling in effects of the conflict in the Middle East that left global economies gripping with an energy shock.

In May, the average price of unleaded petrol rose to 158.52p, marking its highest level since the start of the Iran war, according to the RAC.

It followed Brent crude – the international benchmark for oil prices – holding above the $110 mark for extended periods throughout May before sliding under three digits in the final days of the month following a fragile peace deal between the US and Iran.

Over the last week, details of a confirmed peace deal between the two nations have emerged, providing further relief to the oil market. But economists are warning the consequences of the last few months could still be long-standing.

Inflation expectations hit a record high in the second quarter of the year, which could rattle Bank of England policymakers and build the case for an interest rate hike.

The Bank’s joint survey with Ipsos found that, on average, households believe inflation will rise by 3.9 per cent over the next five years. 

It was the highest reading for inflation expectations recorded since data collection began in early 2009. 

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