Dr. Ayub Mukisa: Kyagulanyi’s Volatile Support vs. Museveni’s Entrenched Base: Who Will Command Uganda’s Political Future?

I was motivated to write this article by one of Kyagulanyi’s supporters who, after reading one of my political commentary pieces this week, sent me a message saying: “Mukisa, what you need to know is, we criticize your articles, but we also want a share of that cake from Museveni come 2026.” What he meant by a “share of Museveni’s cake” is what made me pause. With such attitudes among Kyagulanyi’s volatile supporters, will they not leave Kyagulanyi alone on the voting day of January 15, 2026?

To strengthen the point about Kyagulanyi’s unstable support versus Museveni’s entrenched base, another independent-minded reader told me, “Dr., you are swaying off,” after reading one of my articles. When I asked whether he supported Kyagulanyi, he replied, “No, I support Mugisha Muntu.” That response made me wonder why many people who defend Kyagulanyi online or in discussion do not actually support him politically. This contradiction mirrors the broader volatility within his support base.

The behavior of many urban youth, especially boda boda riders, further illustrates this uncertainty. It is often hard to determine where they truly stand politically. When Kyagulanyi visits, they ride in huge convoys following him passionately. Yet when Museveni visits the same area, the very same riders reappear—this time cheering Museveni. During Kyagulanyi’s rally in Nakawa, one of his own online supporters commented, “Support Bobi Wine, but vote Museveni not to waste your vote.” Such revelations raise deeper questions about Kyagulanyi’s supporters.

Ugandan socio-political critic Professor Oweyegha-Afunaduula, writing in the Daily Express on December 9, 2025, in an article titled “What Are Elections for in Uganda Today?”, argued that elections in Uganda primarily determine who is to be handed the instruments of power. Considering the volatile nature of Kyagulanyi’s support, it is easier to understand how these elections may once again give Museveni the instruments of power in 2026.
Why do I say so? Museveni’s support is entrenched, built over nearly four decades through grassroots networks, patronage channels, and a disciplined party structure that reaches even the remotest parts of the country. Unlike Kyagulanyi’s loud rallies, Museveni’s supporters appear quieter but remain consistent, predictable, and dependable.

Lastly, many of Kyagulanyi’s parliamentary candidates are financially struggling, worsening their vulnerability—unlike Museveni, who even has some candidates running unopposed.

Ayub Mukisa, PhD
Executive Director, Karamoja Anti-Corruption Coalition (KACC)
Email: ayubmukisa@gmail.com

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