Did Ukraine finally hit Russia’s new Black Sea Fleet flagship?

After years of relentless Ukrainian strikes from the air, the surface and below the surface, the Russian Black Sea Fleet is a shadow of its former self. Just seven warships now represent the once-powerful fleet's offensive firepower.

Ukraine's Unmanned Systems Forces claimed it just hit one of them. Under the cover of darkness on Monday, one-way attack drones targeted the frigate Admiral Makarov while the 125-m, missile-armed vessel was at its pier in the port of Novorossiysk in southern Russia.

The USF claimed its 1st Separate Unmanned Systems Center "struck" the ship, which is armed with surface-to-air missiles and Kalibr land-attack cruise missiles.

Admiral Makarov, sister frigate Admiral Essen, three Buyan-class corvettes and potentially just two Improved Kilo-class submarines—all seven currently sheltering in Novorossiysk—routinely fire the 2,300-kg Kalibrs at Ukrainian cities.

Footage from the forward-facing thermal cameras aboard the 1st Separate Unmanned Systems Center's FP-1 or FP-2 drones depicts the drones barreling toward Admiral Makarov, and also depicts the frigate firing at least one surface-to-air missile in self-defense.

The footage doesn't clearly depict any impact on the frigate. The ambiguity is familiar. After a Ukrainian drone submarine infiltrated Novorossiysk exploded near a the submarine Kolpino back in December, observers spent weeks debating whether the sub had suffered any harm.

Satellite imagery from after the raid was inconclusive; the best evidence Kolpino had taken some damage was the many weeks it took the vessel to move away from its pier.

Likewise, it could be a while before there's any hard proof that Admiral Makarov was damaged or not damaged by the FP-1/2s.

Weak drones

The Ukrainians' potential hits on Admiral Makarov, which has served as the Black Sea Fleet's flagship ever since Ukrainian anti-ship missiles sank the cruiser Moskva back in April 2022, come after months of trying. On the night of 1-2 March, scores of Ukrainian drones swarmed the port, targeting at least eight warships including Admiral Makarov.

But that raid failed to cause any serious damage. One persistent problem for the USF and other Ukrainian drone operators is the relative weakness of its best deep strike drones.

Air-launched cruise missiles such as the British-made Storm Shadow or French SCALP-EG hit hard with 450-kg penetrating warheads that can devastate a ship. Just look at what a Storm Shadow did to the Russian submarine Rostov-on-Don back in 2024.

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Storm Shadows and SCALP-EGs are in short supply in the Ukrainian inventory, however. One-way attack drones are, by contrast, fairly abundant—as Ukrainian industry can build them without a lot of external assistance.

But the drones that are capable of reaching Novorossiysk, 430 km from the front line, tend to devote most of their payload to fuel instead of explosives. And that means that even when they hit their targets, they often inflict only cosmetic damage.

The FP-1 is one of those drone designs that favors range over striking power. The propeller-drive FP-1 ranges nearly 1,400 km under satellite and inertial guidance but carries a warhead weighing as little as 60 kg. The similar FP-2 trades fuel for explosives and strikes with a much more damaging 100-kg warhead. But the standard FP-2 ranges just 200 km or so, likely placing Novorossiysk beyond its reach.

The caveat is that Fire Point, which manufactures the FP-1 and FP-2, is working on new variants of both types that have fuel tanks in their wings instead of in their fuselages. Shifting the fuel tanks makes space for bigger warheads.

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The improved FP-1 will carry a 100-kg warhead, according to Denys Shtilierman, Fire Point’s co-owner. That might be sufficient explosive firepower to damage a steel-hulled warship.

Whether the drones that targeted Admiral Makarov on Monday had the bigger warheads is unclear. Ultimately, it doesn't matter. Ukraine is striking at the dwindling Black Sea Fleet more and more often with heavier and heavier drones.

If the Ukrainians missed Admiral Makarov on Monday—or hit the frigate but inflicted no lasting damage—it's a safe bet they'll just try again in the coming weeks. And keep trying until Admiral Makarov is out of action.