ST. LOUIS – More than half of the St. Louis bi-state area is experiencing moderate drought conditions.

As of Sept. 9, 45.6% of Missouri is in moderate drought, up from 30.6% a week ago and 3.9% three months ago; 17% of Missouri and 5% of Southern Illinois are in severe drought.

Warm, summer temperatures are expected for the next 10 days or so, putting us in a harsh feedback loop—warm temperatures create dry conditions, and drier air is easier to warm.

The heat itself is not the problem. The problem is that we’ll have dry weather and dry air.

A standard cold front with a round of rain and storms is not going to break this drought. We need an extensive, widespread, soaking rain; like that of a tropical storm or hurricane from the Gulf of Mexico.

Until then, we’re going to see vegetation dry up and die out. That’s typical in the fall, but when it is excessively dry, you’re at risk of brushfire or wildfire spreading and getting out of hand quickly.

Another thing to watch for, and this is more of an issue in Illinois, because of the way the interstates are oriented, are dust storms.

Farmers will be harvesting crops in the next week or so. They’re going to till or disturb the soil, which will be really dry. If it doesn’t rain and it gets windy, you’re looking at a lot of dust, dirt, and debris getting picked up and blown around and onto interstates and highways.

In May 2023, a vicious dust storm across Interstate 55 caused a massive pile-up south Springfield, Illinois, and claimed the lives of eight people. Newly planted crops for that spring season had kicked up the dirt which became the source of the dust storm.