After Gaza, Israel’s next challenge is its reliance upon the US

As Israel’s war against Hamas in Gaza nears its end, the day after becomes the main topic of political commentary. That question concerns Israel’s tactical posture and its relationship with the rest of the world; primarily, with its chief strategic ally, the United States.

Israel’s reliance on the United States and the extremely close military and economic cooperation between the two countries have not been constant features of the relationship.

In fact, in 1947, if not for the Soviet Union changing its stance at the last minute and supporting the creation of the Jewish State, the United Nations would not vote for the partition. In 1948, the U.S. declared a total weapons embargo on Israel and the war of Independence would likely be lost without the Soviet Union’s help via Czechoslovakia, . 

The United States kept its distance from Israel, periodically pressuring it either regarding its conflicts with the Arab neighbors or its nascent nuclear program. 

Some change came after Israel demonstrated its potential as a regional ally during the Six Day War, but the real change arrived in the early 90s, when Israel’s and the U.S.’s strategic goals finally aligned. 

The Soviet Union ceased to exist and, as a result, Israel’s enemies lost the support of a superpower. The Evil Empire, the chief ideological architect of the Palestinian problem, faded away into history, leaving former clients in disarray looking for a new “sponsor.” The country was ready for diplomatic and political adventures. 

The United States, for its part, became the only superpower. It had no idea how to rule the world, but really wanted to resolve long simmering conflicts, the Arab-Israeli one being the chief among them. It was ready to help both sides, host meetings and provide "guarantees." The policy wonks in the State Department had grand visions, but no idea how to implement them. 

Then came Oslo. It started without American knowledge, but once Washington learned about the process, it quickly hijacked it. Both countries, Israel and the United States, were building the “New Middle East” on a loss of reality and self preservation with grand, unrealistic visions and assumption of one’s omnipotence. 

The following three decades were years when both countries drew close to each other and then started slowly pulling apart, with the process finally culminating with the events of Oct. 7, 2023. The premise of the U.S.-Israel relationship, based on the assumption that Israel’s survival was not in question, disappeared that day. 

Israel could no longer disregard immediate threats next to its borders and be a “respected member of the community of nations.” It had to return to the aggressive strategic posture introduced and implemented by David Ben Gurion in the 1950s and 60s. The strategy led to a very tense relationship with Washington. 

The United States, on the other hand, overextended across the world and trying to focus on China, wanted a quiet Middle East. The nations’ strategic goals became irreconcilable.

The American political landscape is undergoing tectonic shifts causing schizophrenic policy changes between consecutive administrations. For Israel, this political instability in Washington is a major strategic concern. 

In the past 30 years one could assume a positive, give or take, attitude of any American administration, be it Democratic or Republican, towards Israel. The first clear sign of that status quo change came with strained relations under President Obama. 

The subsequent years, and recent developments, have shown that Israel could rely on the Republican Party for support and expect major blowback from the Democratic Party. And even Republican Party support is less assured and not as iron clad as it used to be. 

American public opinion in general is becoming more antisemitic and hostile to foreign conflicts. The American Jewish community is fast fading away due cultural, economic and demographic reasons. 

This is the major reason why Benjamin Netanyahu has aligned Israel so closely with the current Trump administration. Likely, it is the last friendly American administration, and Israel must extract all possible political and strategic benefits as the window of opportunity could close in 2028 and never open again. 

Israel will have to understand how to become more self-sufficient militarily. Specifically, its air force reliance on America produced aircraft will become its Achilles heel. It may become clear soon that cancelling the Lavi project, Israel’s attempt at producing a fighter jet, was a mistake, and a similar project needs to be started again. 

Close military relationships with smaller countries, again repeating the experience of the 1950s and 60s, will become a necessity. The overreliance on the United States will have to give way to cooperation with partners under mutually beneficial scenarios. Azerbaijan is a good existing example. But Ukraine and Poland are good potential partners as well. 

One era is coming to an end. Another one is already here.

Lev Stesin is a founding member of San Francisco Voices for Israel.