“A matter of time”: Kostiantynivka now faces slow Pokrovsk-style siege, DeepState says

Russian troops have reached the outskirts of Kostiantynivka in Donetsk Oblast from several directions and are increasingly infiltrating the city, according to Ukrainian battlefield monitoring group DeepState, which described the situation as developing along its “most difficult scenario.”

The assessment comes as Russian forces continue their summer offensive in eastern Ukraine, seeking to expand control in Donetsk Oblast and push toward the region’s remaining major Ukrainian-held urban centers.

Pokrovsk-style siege takes shape in Kostiantynivka

According to DeepState, Russian forces have reached the positions needed to begin what it described as a gradual "absorption" of Kostiantynivka, mirroring tactics previously used around Pokrovsk.

Pokrovsk is a city in western Donetsk Oblast that became the site of a prolonged, months-long battle marked by gradual Russian advances rather than rapid capture. 

Fighting there developed through sustained infantry pressure, repeated attempts to infiltrate urban areas, and systematic targeting of Ukrainian logistics routes, which over time increased strain on the city’s defence and contributed to its eventual fall after extended combat in early 2026.

Russian infantry push deep as logistics corridors come under pressure

Rather than relying solely on direct assaults, Russian troops are increasingly infiltrating the city's outskirts and surrounding areas while seeking to disrupt Ukrainian logistics. 

DeepState said Russian infantry have already been spotted entering the eastern part of the city through Novodmytrivka, while additional pressure is coming from the directions of Berestok and Illinivka.

The group warned that Moscow's immediate objective is likely to reach the narrow northern corridor connecting Kostiantynivka with rear supply routes.

As seen in Pokrovsk, even small Russian infantry groups could establish ambush positions and guide drone strikes, placing roads under constant fire control without fully encircling the city.

DeepState argued that this approach allows Russian forces to gradually isolate urban areas, forcing Ukrainian troops to operate under increasingly difficult logistical conditions while Russian units continue advancing and adjusting positions as needed.

City increasingly vulnerable to encirclement pressure

DeepState said Russian forces are simultaneously destroying the city through sustained bombardment, reducing large parts of Kostiantynivka to ruins.

The analysts argued that Moscow is accepting heavy infantry losses in exchange for steady territorial gains, noting that similar tactics were used during the campaign for Pokrovsk. While Russian casualties were reportedly high, the approach ultimately enabled Russian forces to capture the city.

Kostiantynivka is a critical gateway to the Sloviansk-Kramatorsk urban area, one of Ukraine’s last major defensive hubs in Donetsk Oblast.

Fall of Kostiantynivka could reshape regional logistics

DeepState warned that the loss of Kostiantynivka would significantly complicate Ukrainian logistics across the sector.

The group said that the fall of Kostiantynivka is ultimately "a matter of time" if present trends continue.

According to the analysis, Druzhkivka would likely become the next Russian objective because of its key logistical role, followed by pressure on Kramatorsk. Russian control of Kostiantynivka would make movement throughout the area more difficult and increase the threat posed by Russian drone operators deeper behind the front line.

The group also suggested Russia could attempt to open an additional axis toward Sloviansk and Kramatorsk south of Lyman, along a stretch running from Mykolaivka to Malynivka, where some Ukrainian brigades reportedly face manpower shortages.

“The battle for Kostiantynivka continues,” DeepState concluded.

Strategic importance of Kostiantynivka

Kostiantynivka has become one of Ukraine’s key defensive strongholds in northern Donetsk Oblast since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion. The city sits on major road and rail routes linking the Ukrainian-controlled cities of Druzhkivka, Kramatorsk, and Sloviansk.

Russian military advances toward the city have accelerated in recent months following gains south and east of Kostiantynivka, raising concerns among Ukrainian analysts that Moscow is preparing a broader offensive against the remaining urban centers of the Sloviansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration.