56% of Ukrainian refugees would remain in Europe in event of "fragile peace" – UN

May 17, 2026 - 13:11

A UN report has projected that if a "fragile peace with concessions" were achieved in the Russia-Ukraine war this year, over half of the current number of Ukrainian refugees would remain in Europe until the end of 2029.

Source: research by the UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), as reported by European Pravda

Details: One of the research scenarios models a situation in which Russia retains de facto control over the temporarily occupied territories, the level of investment in Ukrainian government-controlled territories remains at a medium or high level, and Temporary Protection status for Ukrainian refugees in the EU ends in March 2027.

In this scenario, it is projected that 2.9 million Ukrainian refugees (56% of the current number) would remain in Europe until at least 2029.

In the second scenario – the status quo, i.e. Russian aggression continues – 5.16 million Ukrainian refugees (99% of the current number) would stay in Europe until the end of 2029.

In the third scenario – Ukraine wins the war and reclaims the occupied territories by the end of this year – the number of refugees could fall to 32%.

UNHCR underlined that these scenarios are not predictive, and that the research demonstrates how refugees' behaviour may change in response to various possible future events, based on a range of data, including surveys.

Background:

The European Commission and EU member states are discussing options for a unified decision on the status of Ukrainians living in the EU after March 2027. The abolition of Temporary Protection and its extension by a further year are both still under consideration.
The Temporary Protection Directive, activated in March 2022, gave millions of Ukrainians access to a range of rights in the EU without overburdening the asylum system.
Originally conceived as a short-term emergency measure, the directive has been extended several times. It is currently in force until 4 March 2027.